Tuesday, January 5, 2010

MLS Draft: A Real Crapshoot

 

The MLS Draft is coming up next week.  Real Salt Lake holds three picks in the draft, picking last in the first, second and fourth rounds (Note: some sources have indicated RSL has a 3rd, but not a 4th, but this contradicts the info from Garth Lagerwey).  What can they expect?  The answer is probably not alot. 

I pulled out some of the noteworthy picks through the last decade (avoiding the temptation to list all of the flops).  In many cases these are the better players that have shown their worth in MLS, on the US international team and playing abroad.  I have left off some equally deserving players in some cases in the the interest of brevity. 

So what does it show?  Well to be honest the jury is still out on 2008 & 2009.  Generally speaking, however, there are between 3-5 above average players that come through the draft annually.  That’s it.  A few other decent players sprinkled in that aren’t listed, and you hardly have the talent to field a viable team from each years selections in the draft.   

2009
Steve Zakuani (1)
Sam Cronin (2)
AJ DeLaGarza (19)

2008
Brek Shea (2)
Tony Beltran (3)
Geoff Cameron (42)

2007
Maurice Edu (1)
Bakary Soumare (2)
Robbie Findley (16)
Omar Cummings (31)

2006

Marvell Wynne (1)
Yura Movsisyan (4)
Sacha Kljestan (5)
Josy Altidore (17)
Jonathon Bornstein (37)

2005
Brad Guzan (2)
Chris Rolfe (29)
Gonzo Segares (35)

2004
Freddy Adu (1)
Chad Marshall (2)
Joseph Ngwenya (3)
Clarence Goodson (7)
Clint Dempsey (8)
Matt Pickens (19)
Zach Wells (20)
Jeremiah White (23)
Michael Bradley (36)

2003
Ricardo Clark (2)
Pat Noonan (9)
Arturo Alvarez (13)

2002
Taylor Twellman (2)
Brad Davis (3)
Shalrie Joseph (14)
Alejandro Moreno (27)

2001
Brian Ching (16)
Eddie Johnson (19)

2000

Nick Garcia (2)
Carlos Bocanegra (4)
Danny Califf (6)
Bobby Convey (12)
Nick Rimando (35)

 


With Real Salt Lake holding picks #16 and #32 for their first two picks, I thought I would focus on those two selections to see what those picks would normally yield (see charts below).

There is some good news.  Pick #16 has brought Brian Ching and Robbie Findley into the league.  As would be expected, over the last 12 years Pick #32 has not led to any players yielding significant dividends. So while there is hope, it’s very slim.  Hopefully RSL can find this years Geoff Cameron, or Omar Cummings – but don’t count on it. 

Generally speaking, there have been very few picks below #15 that have produced significant dividends.  Some would argue that there are too few worthwhile picks ABOVE #15 to make the draft meaningful. 

As an RSL fan – put all your stock in the open transfer market, but hope for a minor miracle from the draft.

History of Pick #16

Year

Rd

Pick

Team

Player

Previous Team

2009

2

16

Seattle Sounders

Evan Brown

Wake Forest University

2008

2

16

New York Red Bull

Eric Brunner

Ohio State University

2007

2

16

Los Angeles Galaxy

Robbie Findley

Oregon State University

2006

2

16

Kansas City Wizards

Lance Watson

University of New Mexico

2005

2

16

Kansas City Wizards

Ryan Pore

University of Tulsa

2004

2

16

Colorado Rapids

Adrian Cann

University of Louisville

2003

2

16

Los Angeles Galaxy

Scot Thompson

UCLA

2002

2

16

Colorado Rapids

Danny Jackson

University of North Carolina

2001

2

16

Los Angeles Galaxy

Brian Ching

Spokane Shadow

2000

2

16

San Jose Earthquakes

Justin Evans

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

1999

2

16

New York MetroStars

Kevin Knight

James Madison University

1998

2

16

New York MetroStars

Billy Walsh

Rutgers University

1997

2

16

Dallas Burn

Alan Branigan

Rutgers University

1996

2

16

New England Revolution

Imad Baba

Clemson University

History of Pick #32

Year

Rd

Pick

Team

Player

Previous Team

2009

3

32

Seattle Sounders

Jared Karkas

Azusa Pacific

2008

3

32

New York Red Bull

Luke Sassano

UC Berkeley

2007

3

32

D.C. United

Jay Needham

Southern Methodist University

2006

3

32

Houston Dynamo

Andre Schmid

St. John's University

2005

3

32

San Jose Earthquakes

C.J. Klass

University of Washington

2004

4

32

Columbus Crew

Jamal Sutton

Missouri State University

2003

4

32

New York MetroStars

Kenny Arena

University of Virginia

2002

3

32

Kansas City Wizards

O'neil Peart

Long Island Rough Riders

2001

3

32

Colorado Rapids

Ryan Lee

UCLA

2000

3

32

Chicago Fire

Yuri Lavrinenko

Indiana University

1999

3

32

Colorado Rapids

Bobby Meyer

Dartmouth College

1998

3

32

Kansas City Wizards

Mario Sanchez

Fresno State University