Tuesday, September 15, 2009

It’s All About the Hot Streak

Soccer is a funny game, especially in the MLS.  Not nearly as predictable as pointy ball, basketball or baseball.  There are clearly trends and patterns that emerge, and the cream almost always rises to the top.  However, the game is also subject to “that’s just the ball bounces” more than most sports.  One quick reaction, or burst of quality can lead to a goal, even if the rest of the game is a lackluster one for your side. 

Columbus and Houston are two teams that have demonstrated the fact that the “cream rises to the top” over the last couple of seasons.  They have had their share of the ball bouncing against them, but in the long haul they’ve both found themselves on the top over the last two seasons.  However, their position at the top of the standings is more precarious than you might think. 

Current Standings

club

gp

w

l

t

pts

Columbus

24 11 4 9 42

Houston

26 11 8 7 40

Chicago

25 10 6 9 39

Los Angeles

25 9 5 11 38

Seattle

25 9 6 10 37

D.C. United

26 8 6 12 36

Colorado

24 10 8 6 36

Chivas USA

23 11 9 3 36

Toronto FC

25 9 9 7 34

Real Salt Lake

25 9 9 7 34

New England

23 9 8 6 33

Kansas City

24 7 11 6 27

FC Dallas

24 7 11 6 27

San Jose

22 5 12 5 20

New York

25 4 17 4 16

The current position of these two teams is all about a streak.  Both teams had sub-par starts to the season with Houston winning only 1 of their first 5 matches and Columbus didn’t pick up their first victory on the season until game #8, despite picking up numerous ties along the way.  Houston’s streak came in May and June where they picked up 23 points in 10 matches.  They have 17 points in their other 16 matches.  Columbus is on a current hot-streak with 21 points in their last 10 matches.  It took them 14 matches to get the other half of their points.  Los Angeles has used a similar streak to find their way near the top of the West.  These streaks have proven the difference for these teams. 

Ten-Game Streaks

Team

Last 10

Columbus

21

Los Angeles

20

New England

17

Real Salt Lake

15

Seattle

15

Colorado

15

Chicago

15

DC United

13

Toronto

11

Houston

9

Chivas

9

Unfortunately for Real Salt Lake fans, their team had a horrible streak during the month of May (winless, with only two draws).  If there is a ray of hope (and it’s a slim one), it may be that they are possibly currently on the front-end of that hot-streak that they have to this point missed out on the season.  They have won two out of their last three, while getting a draw out of their most recent match.

With five games to go it’s likely to take a hot streak to make the playoffs.  They currently sit at 34 points, with 43 points being touted as the likely playoff cut-off.  So what are the possibilities?  Well, if they win all 5 games, they would end up at 49 points and likely win the West.  Not gonna happen.  If they lose all 5, they stay at 34 points and finish 2nd to last in the West.  Also, not gonna happen.  If they continue on their current pace?  41 points.  Likely out of the playoffs.

Yep, this team needs a hot-streak.  What do you think – are they up for it?  What causes teams like Houston and Columbus to have these extended runs of form?