As we looked at earlier, international spots may be a slight limitation for RSL as the team starts to whittle down the players that they plan on carrying into the 2009 season. This process will probably develop over the next 3 to 3 1/2 weeks, although cuts could be made before that time, and it's still possible for other new players to enter the picture.
However perhaps the most important limitation will be salary cap space. I have attempted to estimate the 2009 salary cap impact of the players currently on the roster. In doing so, I have assumed increases for Olave and Morales due to their new deals. I have also assumed an increase for Chris Wingert, even though I have no knowledge that this will be the case. He seems to be the most undervalued player on the roster. I have not assumed raises for Movsisyan or Johnson but it's possible that there have been adjustments there. If not, there likely will be soon.
We know that RSL made two significant contract buyouts (Morales, Olave) that potentially have a salary cap effect in 2009. For purposes of this analysis I am going to assume that those were taken care of with the allocation received for Dema Kovalenko. That is not likely the case, but we have no context for what those numbers may be. In addition, I am going to assume that there are no acquisition fees for incoming players.
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Similar to the case of international spots, it's likely that the team would allow some room to sign an additional player later in the year if needed. For this reason lets assume that the team has $550,000 to work with for signing additional players. For the time being let's assume that Horst, Nunez and Reynish either all stay in the mix. With this as background, here is a potential sketch of what I think the rest of the roster (and the salary cap) may look like.
First, the rookies:
Alexander: $40,000 (I think this is almost a sure thing unless he just doesn't perform to expectations)
Cox: $18,000 (the value here may just be too good to pass up, and he's a left-sided midfielder) - this developmental contract will not impact the cap.
Now the vets:
Escalada: $175,000 (I think this one's in the bag, but the price?)
El Khalifi: $150,000 (As you recall Lagerway's priorities were a striker and a left-sided attacking player)
Jorginho/Viveros: $150,000 (If Ian Joy is in the mix, I only see one of these two making the roster. There just don't appear to be the dollars to sign both. Which one will it be? The answer may depend on the price of each player.)
These additions are within our budget of $550,000 coming in at a total of $515,000 (the developmental contract for Cox does not affect the cap). These signings would likely mean the end of the line for Tennelle and Reiman. In addition, you could see the following adjustments:
Reynish replaced with trialist Steve Clark in what is primarily a cost saving activity as Reynish is no longer eligible for a developmental contract. Nunez replaced with Hertel if the team is comfortable with the level and numbers of other strikers on the roster AND if they like what they see from Hertel. Again a cost saving move as Hertel would occupy a developmental spot, and Nunez is now too old for a developmental contract. If Kennedy Owusu-Ansah impresses I could also see him sliding into the roster spot of Nunez, depending if RSL could make the salary numbers work.
The one player that I think is clearly left out is Futhi Bhembe. Why? I think he has 3 clear strikes against him: 1) he doesn't appear to have the body to play against some of the physical defenders in this league; 2) he would take up an international spot; 3) at the age of 26 he would not be eligible for a developmental spot.
Those are my thoughts without having much insight into the capabilities of these incoming players. Yes it's an exercise in futility, but it passes the time on a cold winter day. What are your thoughts?
UPDATE: As I had originally researched this, I had understood that there was an increase from 2008's $2.3M, now I am hearing that this may not be the case. If that is true then the team has $100K less to spend which will make roster selection and salary negotiation a little tougher. In addition there may be some acquisition costs that need to be dealt with within those numbers.
